The EU referendum is proving to be challenging campaign for the opinion polls. Those conducted over the internet suggest the outcome is too close to call, while those undertaken via the phone consistently put Remain ahead. Inevitably this is leading to much speculation as to which set of polls is right – and why.
Yet in truth there is also much on which the polls agree. They all find that voters seem torn between the arguments being put forward by the two sides. At the same time all of them report sharp social differences in the profile of ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ supporters. Between them these patterns give the impression of a country that is debating with itself how best to respond to an increasingly globalised world.
Professor John Curtice considers how the problems of the polling industry and the social tensions exposed by the referendum might play themselves out in nine days' time... and beyond.
Professor John Curtice FRSA FRSE FBA FAcSS is Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and Senior Fellow of the ESRC's The UK in a Changing Europe programme.
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Academy of Social Sciences
The Academy of Social Sciences is the National Academy of Academics, Learned Societies and Practitioners in the Social Sciences. Its mission is to promote social sciences in the United Kingdom for the public benefit.