CCI Conservation Seminar - Prof. Mark Urban, University of Connecticut

Improving the forecast for biodiversity in the global heat age

Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and its many contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. As global temperatures rise, a synthesis of existing projection models predicts that as many as one in six species could become endangered. Yet, current models often do not incorporate the fundamental biological mechanisms that could mediate these risks. Therefore, we are ill-prepared to pinpoint when, where, and how to prevent the largest extinction event in human history. Although 20 years behind in predicting climate change effects on biodiversity, I believe that ecologists can rapidly increase our ability to make accurate forecasts in the coming years if we start now. Toward this end, I outline a plan to build a universal biodiversity forecasting platform, patterned after the development of general circulation models in climate science. This effort will require international coordination and funding, but not more than similarly bold efforts in climate science, astronomy, and physics. We need to make rapid progress on projecting biodiversity because, in the end, we cannot protect what we cannot predict.

Mark C. Urban is an award-winning scientist, the Arden Chair and Professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut, founder and director of the Center of Biological Risk, and global expert on climate change impacts on nature and evolutionary ecology. An avid field biologist, Mark takes every opportunity to get out in the field to learn about the diversity of life and threats to it. He routinely spends time in ponds, lakes, and streams in regions ranging from New England to the North Slope of Alaska. He founded and directs the Center of Biological Risk, the first center devoted to forecasting the complex risks to society mediated by ecosystems. He has authored over 80 scientific articles, appearing in top journals such as Science, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and Nature Climate Change and has been cited more than 13,000 times. By integrating ecology, evolution, and genomics, his work has uncovered new principles that routinely challenge existing ideas, including challenging the spatial scale of adaptation, the importance of adaptation in ecology, and highlighting the joint ecological and evolutionary responses to global change. Most recently, his work has focused on designing global efforts to estimate and mitigate extinction risks from climate change on biodiversity.

His work on climate change impacts on species extinctions was highlighted as one of the top scientific discoveries of 2015 by Discover Magazine and in The Royal Society’s update to the 5th IPCC report. His research has been covered by news outlets around the world including The New York Times, NPR, CBS, CNN, BBC, Associated Press, Washington Post, The Guardian, and National Geographic. He has consulted on stories about climate change appearing in National Geographic, Sir David Attenborough’s documentary Climate Change – The Facts, and the television series, Years of Living Dangerously. His opinion pieces have appeared in The New York Times, The Guardian, and Science. Since 2015, he has led an annual contingent of UConn students, faculty, and staff to the United Nation’s summit on climate change. He currently leads a graduate training program on environmental risks, co-led the campus-wide pop-up course, “Climate Crisis: Take Action,” and teaches courses in ecology, evolutionary ecology, and global change biology. Mark has given more than 90 presentations on his work, including to TEDx, World Wildlife Fund, and the Association for the Advancement of Arts and Sciences. He was awarded both the Young Investigator and Presidential awards from the American Society of Naturalists, has twice been named an ISI Highly Cited Researcher, and is a fellow of the Connecticut Academy of Science and Engineering.

Drinks will follow in the Common Room

Wednesday, 3rd May 2023 - 16:00 to 17:00

Main Seminar Room, David Attenborough Building

Zoom link for online participants:

https://zoom.us/j/93530353042?pwd=YkNEZEZtOW91Mkw4eWl6V3IrVEpRZz09

Conservation Seminar - Prof. Mark Urban, 3rd May 2023