The High North is reemerging as a key arena of strategic competition, where NATO, Russia, and China are navigating an increasingly volatile security landscape. Russia’s evolving nuclear doctrine and growing use of grey-zone tactics are challenging long-held assumptions about deterrence thresholds and escalation risks. Meanwhile, the erosion of traditional stabilisation measures and rapid technological change are making Cold War-era deterrence frameworks increasingly unfit for purpose.
In the third seminar of the series, Professor Rolf Tamnes will examine how Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO creates both new opportunities and potential frictions for a more coordinated Nordic approach to deterrence and reassurance. Drawing on decades of scholarship and policy engagement, he will outline practical measures to align Nordic threat assessments, risk tolerance, intelligence-sharing, joint exercises, and escalation management. The talk will also assess the complementary roles of NORDEFCO, NATO, and the EU in burden-sharing, capability development, and defence.
This event is open to the public and free to attend both in-person and online. In-person spaces are limited, so register now to secure your spot!
About the speaker
Rolf Tamnes is a professor and senior researcher at NUPI’s Security and Defence group. He holds a dr.philos (1991) and an MA (1978) from the University of Oslo. Previously, he served at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (1981–2021), including as Director (1996–2012) and adjunct professor at the University of Oslo (1995–2009). He has been a visiting fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center, CSIS (Washington, DC), and St Antony’s College, Oxford. Tamnes has served on multiple Norwegian government commissions, including chairing the Expert Commission on Security and Defence Policy (2014–15), and was a member of the Norwegian Defence Commission (2022–23) and both Afghanistan inquiry committees. He is a member of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters and the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences.
About the Deterrence Challenges in the High North Series
This series led by Professor Mats Berdal and Professor Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer at King’s aims to build capacity among NATO allies and generate new insights into the deterrence challenges facing the High North in the coming decade.
Through a series of high-level seminars, we bring together leading experts from the US, UK and Nordic NATO countries to exchange perspectives, foster collaboration, and develop evidence-based approaches to today’s most pressing strategic questions.
