Foundations of time series forecasting using R

The course will be run by, Bahman Rostami-Tabar (Ph.D.)

Cardiff Business School, UK

Attendance for the 3 sessions is mandatory to complete the workshop.

Content of the workshop:

Pre-session (Recorded video): Preparing data for forecasting

Pre-requisites: Basic knowledge of R is required

Day 1: Tuesday 20th April 2021

1.1.Forecasting and decision making: What is forecasting? How forecasting task is different from other modelling tasks? What is the link between forecasting and decision making, how to identify what to forecast?

1.2. Time series patterns and decomposition: what could be used in data for forecasting task? how to detect systematic pattern in the data? how to separate non-systematic pattern?

1.3. Forecaster’s toolbox: How to use time series graphics to identify patterns? what is a forecasting benchmark? What are the simple forecasting methods that could be used as benchmark? How to generate point forecasts and prediction interval using simple forecasting methods?

Day 2: Tuesday 27th April 2021

2: 2.1. Forecast accuracy evaluation: How do we know if the forecasting method captures systematic patterns available in data? How to judge whether a forecast is accurate or not? How to evaluate the accuracy of point forecasts and prediction interval? Why do we need to distinguish between fitting and forecast?

2.2. Exponential smoothing models: What is the exponential smoothing family? what are available models in this family? What is captured by this family? how to generate point forecast and prediction intervals using exponential smoothing models?

Day 3: Tuesday 4th May 2021

3.1. ARIMA models: This is another important family of forecasting models. What is the ARIMA framework? what are available models in this family? What is captured by this family? how to generate point forecast and prediction intervals using ARIMA models?

3.2. Regression: We also look at causal techniques that consider external variables. What is the difference between regression and exponential smoothing and ARIMA? How to build a multiple regression model? How to use regressors and special events in a regression model?

The places on this course are limited to NHS employees and those who work in the health care sector, including public sector organisations such as PHE, local councils and DHSC.

For further information contact: nhs.rcommunity@nhs.net