For over two decades the discourse on ‘cyber war’ has developed beyond cycles of hyperbole towards a more nuanced understanding of cyber operations. This research presents cyber operations in their broader context as part of information confrontation, focussing on the creation of cyber ‘effects’ and how they may lead to achieving operational or strategic outcomes. The enquiry answers the research question: How can cyber operations for cognitive effect contribute to information confrontation?
The presentation will introduce an analytical framework that supports the investigation of case studies from four perspectives: effects dimensions, intentions, integration, and temporality. The framework is applied to the use of cyber effects in the current conflict in Ukraine. In doing so it aims to understand the role of cyber operations as part of Russia’s full-scale invasion and subsequent war. It draws out the reality between the extremes of narratives, the pre-conflict speculation of a decisive role for cyber operations, and the later observations that the ‘cyber dogs have failed to bark’.[1] The research contributes to a more nuanced understanding of where cyber effects can make a meaningful contribution to state power, particularly where they can support the achievement of cognitive change.
[1] Kostyuk, Nadiya, and Gartzke, Erik (2022). Why Cyber Dogs Have Yet to Bark Loudly in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. Texas National Security Review, 5: 113-126.
