Hidden Trade Routes: IFFs & Sanctions Evasion in the Balkans & Black Sea

Save the date for the launch of the latest research paper from the Center for the Study of Democracy, delivered as part of the GI ACE programme. This session will present new evidence on illicit financial flows and sanctions circumvention, drawing on unique data and in-depth regional analysis.

The discussion will highlight the paper’s key findings, explore their policy relevance for the EU, UK, and G7, and examine the broader implications for governance and economic stability in Europe’s neighbourhood and beyond.

By bringing together researchers, practitioners, and policymakers, the launch aims to foster dialogue on effective responses to sanctions evasion and state capture networks, and to generate actionable insights for countering global financial crime.

Don’t miss this opportunity to engage with experts, explore timely research, and contribute to the policy debate on illicit networks and sanctions evasion.

About the session:

This webinar will launch the new research paper Hidden Trade Routes: The Rise of Illicit Networks and Alternative Markets in Sanctions Circumvention. The study examines how illicit financial flows linked to sanctions evasion have surged across the Western Balkans and Black Sea region, doubling to more than $31 billion in 2023.

It shows that European companies continue to sell sanctioned dual-use goods to Russia, often by falsifying documentation, using shell companies or rebranded firms, and relying on entrenched state-capture networks to sustain Russia’s access to dual-use technologies and critical supplies.

The discussion will focus on the paper’s findings, including the broader economic and governance implications for countries in Europe’s neighbourhood, as well as the global risks of sanctions evasion as similar patterns begin to appear in emerging markets. The session will also explore policy responses for the EU, UK, and G7, ranging from stronger export controls to early warning systems and long-term efforts to counter state capture.

About the Speakers:

Tihomira Kostova is a Senior Analyst at CSD’s Economic Program, focusing on strategic corruption and state capture. Her work extends beyond Bulgaria to the Balkans, Central Asia, and the Black Sea region. She has over ten years of experience with national and international consultancy firms, including the Austrian-based Hulla & Co. Human Dynamics (now part of US DAI), where she worked primarily on transition and developing countries.

Her expertise lies in public and private sector development, with a proven track record in conducting in-depth research, designing and delivering trainings, and developing strategic planning documents for the public sector.

Currently, Tihomira is actively involved in the project Building Institutional Resilience to Global Illicit Financial Flows as Enablers and Drivers of State Capture, funded under the GI ACE research programme. Her work emphasizes the role of illicit financial flows (IFFs) in strategic corruption and state capture. She is researching the sources, channels, and enablers of IFFs in ten countries across the Balkans, Central Asia, and the Black Sea region. Her research highlights how IFF networks facilitate sanctions evasion and examines gaps in institutional resilience and anti-money laundering (AML) frameworks, with the aim of providing actionable recommendations to strengthen enforcement and improve AML legislation.

In addition, she supports the assessment of IFFs in these countries by applying UNCTAD methodologies for calculating IFFs.

Liz Dávid-Barrett (Chair) is Professor of Governance and Integrity at the University of Sussex, Programme Director of GI ACE, and Director of the Centre for the Study of Corruption. Her research focuses on corruption risks at the interface of business and government—including state capture, public procurement, and bribery in international business—and on approaches to countering these risks, such as transnational governance networks in law enforcement and investigative journalism.

Recent co-edited books include The Dictionary of Corruption (2023, Agenda, with Robert Barrington, Rebecca Dobson Phillips, and Georgia Garrod) and Understanding Corruption: How Corruption Works in Practice (2022, Agenda, with Robert Barrington, Sam Power, and Dan Hough). Liz engages widely with anti-corruption practitioners globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the Caribbean, and Europe, and has advised the UK government and the G20 on international anti-corruption policy.

Before becoming an academic, Liz worked as a journalist in the Balkans for The Economist and Financial Times. In 2022–23, she served as Head of the Global Programme on Measuring Corruption at the International Anti-Corruption Academy. She holds a DPhil, MSc, and MA from the University of Oxford, and an MA from the University of London.

To find out more about the project, visit the project page here: https://bit.ly/GIACECSDResearch

Read CSD's policy brief here: https://bit.ly/csdpolicybrief

Read CSD's blog on the topic here: https://bit.ly/CSDBlog

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