How can we trust the data and computer models shaping our food systems?

Many decisions about our food system are being made based on data and computer models, including how we should respond to climate change, what subsidies governments should provide, and what changes supermarkets should make. But how do we know if these numbers and models are reliable? When should we trust them, and when should we be asking more questions?

Transparency is often suggested as a solution, but what would that actually look like in practice? Can we imagine a world where researchers, policymakers, and practitioners share their data and models openly -- combining their insights to create something more powerful than any one group could achieve alone?

Our panel brings together expertise from energy systems, astrophysics, and food system modelling. They'll share how they build computer models to understand our food system, the practical challenges they face, and what they've learned about using these tools to inform real-world decisions. Expect an honest conversation about the potential and the pitfalls.

About Paul: Paul Behrens is a British Academy Global Professor at the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford. Paul’s research focuses on the implications of rapid food system transformations in a rapidly changing world. Paul is working on integrated models to assess the environmental and social impacts of such transitions on both consumers and producers. His research and writing on climate, energy, and food, has appeared in scientific journals and media outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Thomson Reuters, Politico, Nature Sustainability, Nature Energy, PNAS, Nature Food, and Nature Communications. Paul’s popular science book, The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: Futures from the Frontiers of Climate Science describes humanity’s current trajectory and possible futures in paired chapters of pessimism and hope, on topics including the economy, energy, land and population. 

About Juan Pablo: Juan Pablo Cordero is a Postdoctoral Researcher in the Department of Environment and Geography at the University of York. Juan Pablo is lead developer of the Future Food Calculator, which challenges you to choose interventions that get the UK to net zero by 2050 without reducing our self-sufficiency. Juan Pablo brings a background in quantitative, open-source, collaborative code development from a PhD in astrophysics, and is interested in the development of scientific software, big data research, visual representation of data, predictive numerical models and the effect of measurement uncertainty on model parameter estimation.

About Sarah (chair): Sarah Bridle is Professor of Food, Climate and Society in the Department of Environment and Geography at the University of York. Data geek turned food systems researcher, Sarah is working to democratise quantitative discussions about how we change the food system to address environmental challenges. Sarah researches the environmental impact of food, and also the vulnerability of our food system here in the UK. Sarah was Food and Land Use System Fellow in the Chief Scientific Adviser’s Office at DEFRA in 2021. Sarah’s popular science book, Food and Climate Change - Without the Hot Air, investigates the climate impacts of different dietary choices. Sarah dreams of a world in which food data and code are open source and interoperable, like it is in astrophysics, so we can address the urgent challenges facing food and the environment. 

About this webinar series

This webinar is part of a monthly series run by AFN Network+ which explores net zero in the UK agri-food system with leading movers and shakers. Expect deep and varied insight from across the sector, including farmers, scientists, policy analysts, community leaders, retailers, politicians, businesses and health professionals.