Eliciting probability distributions from experts
Jeremy Oakley, Professor of Statistics
ScHARR, The University of Sheffield
In this talk I will cover three topics on eliciting probability distributions: representing (expert) knowledge and uncertainty about a quantity of interest in probabilistic form. These will be 1) the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF): a package of documents, templates and software for conducting expert elicitation; 2) the assurance method in clinical trial planning: an alternative to a power calculations that incorporates prior beliefs about a treatment effect; 3) eliciting beliefs about uncertain population variances.