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LICTR Seminar: Eliciting probability distributions from experts

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Seminar Room 9.59

Worsley Building, Level 9

Leeds

LS2 9NL

United Kingdom

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Eliciting probability distributions from experts

Jeremy Oakley, Professor of Statistics

ScHARR, The University of Sheffield

In this talk I will cover three topics on eliciting probability distributions: representing (expert) knowledge and uncertainty about a quantity of interest in probabilistic form. These will be 1) the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF): a package of documents, templates and software for conducting expert elicitation; 2) the assurance method in clinical trial planning: an alternative to a power calculations that incorporates prior beliefs about a treatment effect; 3) eliciting beliefs about uncertain population variances.

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Seminar Room 9.59

Worsley Building, Level 9

Leeds

LS2 9NL

United Kingdom

View Map

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