Modelling Systemic Shifts: A Scenario-Based Modelling of Fishers’ Wellbeing

Understanding well-being in the fishing industry requires a dynamic approach that captures the complex interplay of economic, social, and environmental factors. This research applies scenario-based modelling to explore how targeted changes influence system behaviour and to simulate responses under diverse conditions. Building on previous cognitive mapping work with Scottish nephrops fishers, the study applies participatory approaches and scenario testing to examine fishers’ wellbeing as a complex socio-ecological system. Using cognitive maps developed with diverse stakeholders, advanced network analysis identifies natural clusters of wellbeing indicators based on their centrality and systemic influence. These clusters inform participatory exercises with fishers, policymakers, and researchers to co-create plausible socio-environmental and policy-driven scenarios. The scenarios are modelled using Mental Modeller software, applying fuzzy logic to simulate whole-system responses, feedback loops, and threshold dynamics, replicating changes in fishers’ wellbeing under real-world conditions. The analysis reveals non-linear pathways of change, highlighting critical leverage points and emergent properties that shape resilience and vulnerability within the wellbeing system. By comparing system behaviours across scenarios, the paper identifies patterns of systemic shifts and offers insights into the conditions that trigger transformative change, contributing to systems thinking and informing adaptive fisheries management through a prototype decision-support tool.

Evgenia (Nenia) Micha is an environmental economist with a PhD from the University of Reading, UK. Her research focuses on socio-economic dimensions of agriculture, fisheries, and natural resource management, with emphasis on co-management frameworks, participatory policy design, and the evaluation of policy–practice gaps. Expertise includes sustainable value chains, policy impacts, and theories of change, supported by advanced statistical, econometric, and systems-thinking approaches. Her contributions to UKRI, DEFRA, and European Commission projects have addressed sustainable finance for agriculture and fisheries, stakeholder engagement in marine governance, and the development of social survey tools for commercial fishers in the UK. Her work has examined the effectiveness of Fisheries Management Plans, the adoption of sustainable practices, and the socio-ecological implications of food systems. Nenia’s publications cover environmental policy evaluation, sustainable intensification, and value chain arrangements in agriculture and fisheries. This background combines rigorous quantitative and participatory methods to advance understanding of governance effectiveness, food security, and sustainable blue economy transitions.