I-SEE Seminar

Net zero - what it really means

Professor Dieter Helm CBE

Professor of Economic Policy, New College University of Oxford | Fellow in Economics, New College, Oxford

Abstract: Nothing has been achieved since 1990: emission keep marching up relentlessly and the last 30 wasted years have been the great golden age of the fossil fuels. The reasons for this colossal failure are first that the pursuit of global agreements like Kyoto and Paris will not go very far; and second, that many of the policies that have been pursued have been badly designed, wasteful and some have been counterproductive.

It is not true, as the CCC claim, that when we meet net zero carbon production that we will no longer be causing climate change. We will. What matters is our carbon consumption, not where territorially, the goods and services are being produced.

Three things will achieve meaningful unilateral action: a carbon price, universally applied to consumption and including a carbon border adjustment; net zero carbon infrastructures; and sequestration (especially natural carbon sequestration). With these measures in place, polluters will have to pay, public goods will be provided, and net gain compensation will be applied. This is a solid basis for unilateral action, bottom up and not top down, and it encourages other countries to introduce carbon prices too, instead of paying the carbon border tax to the importing country’s government.

All of the above will impact on us, the selfish generation who are living beyond our environmental means. There will be a hit to our pockets and it will be substantial. But there will be benefits too: in diet, physical health, a better and green natural environmental, better air quality both indoor and in the streets, and less travel as digitalisation cuts away commuting. It simply delusional to imagine that a transformation on the scale required in the next 30 years is all possible whilst carrying on as we are.

Do all this and we can have a sustainable economic growth which is genuinely net zero. Carry on as we are for another 30 years, and in 2050 we will reap the consequences of unsustainable consumption, and this will make us worse off. We can choose to follow a sustainable path now, or face the consequences of damage it will cause.

Professor Dieter Helm is an Official Fellow in Economics at New College, Oxford and Professor of Economic policy at the University of Oxford. He is Chair of the Natural Capital Committee.

Dieter recently completed the Helm Review on The Cost of Energy for the British Government.

Dieter’s recent books include: The Carbon Crunch - revised and updated edition (2015), Natural Capital - Valuing The Planet (2015), and Burn Out: the endgame for fossil fuels (2018), all published by Yale University Press. Green & Prosperous Land was published in March 2019 by William Collins.

I-SEE seminars are free and open for all to attend

https://www.bath.ac.uk/corporate-information/institute-for-sustainable-energy-and-the-environment-i-see-seminars/