A Pollster and a Politician
Michael Turner (Research Director & Head of Polling BMG Research) and Nick Palmer (Maths graduate and former MP)
Title and Abstracts:
Michael Turner: A painful pursuit of accuracy: challenges faced by an industry that seems determined to self-harm
Dr Michael Turner outlines the obstacles faced by opinion pollsters with a frank examination of the numbers that have helped to shape social and political debate in Britain. Pulling no punches, the talk gives an insider's perspective of the five major issues that pollsters face: money, sampling, adjustments, regulation and unfortunately you, the general public.
Nick Palmer: Misleading opinion? How do politicians use polls?
Leading and following opinion
- Age, class, salience, passion
- Was the General Election a sampling error?
- Panels vs face to face
- Large samples vs multiple samples
- Are trends predictive?
The naughty step
- Misleading the public: leading questions
- Misleading the interviewees: push polling
- Misleading yourself: selective interpretation
Why politics needs polls