The Climate Impacts Mitigation, Adaption and Resilience (CLIMAR) framework

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Abstract

Environmental Intelligence is the integration of Environmental data and knowledge and Artificial Intelligence to provide the meaningful insight to inform decision-making, improved risk management, and the technological innovation that will lead us towards a sustainable interaction with the natural environment. The Climate Impacts Mitigation, Adaption and Resilience (CLIMAR) framework uses Data Science and AI to integrate multiple sources of data to quantify the risks of climate change on populations, infrastructure and the economy. Models for climate related hazards (e.g. increased frequency of extreme weather events, flooding, summer temperatures, wind speeds) are integrated with data and models for whether individual ‘assets’ (e.g. electricity substations, windfarms, roads, vulnerable members of the population) are exposed and, given exposure, the extent to which they are vulnerable to those hazards. The CLIMAR framework provides the ability to quantify and visualise the effects of changes in our environment at highly localised levels and, through integration with economic and operational models, to run virtual scenarios in which the effects of potential mitigation and adaptation measures can be assessed. Examples include energy system security, transportation, telecommunications, agriculture, critical infrastructure, and health. This ability is going to be crucial across a wide variety of sectors in designing pathways to Net-Zero and enhancing our resilience to climate change.

Biographies

Dr Emilie Vanvyve is a physicist by training with a PhD in climate science and several years of experience working in applied weather/climate research within customer-focussed organisations in private and public sectors. Emilie’s main motivation is to transform research concepts into services that directly benefit the public. She joined the JCEEI in May 2021, leading the Research, Development and Applications programme of work. Through her role, Emilie is guiding the development and overseeing delivery of projects applying data science to environmental issues.

Dr James Salter is a lecturer in Statistics (Data Science/Environmental Intelligence) at the University of Exeter, where he is part of the JCEEI, Statistical Science, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Data Centric Engineering (DCE) groups. His research interests include emulating and history matching (calibrating) expensive computer models with high-dimensional input and output spaces, discrepancies between models and observations, environmental modelling, and communicating uncertainty.

Dr Kirstine Dale is the Met Office’s principal fellow for Data Science and Co-Director for the Joint Centre for Excellence in Environmental Intelligence. With a strong, multidisciplinary background across natural and social sciences, and vocational training in project, programme and research management, she leads the strategy of the group in areas covering R&D, Infrastructure Development, Capability Building, and Research Applications

Professor Gavin Shaddick is Chair of Data Science and Statistics at the University of Exeter and co-Director of the Joint Centre for Excellence in Environmental Intelligence, a joint research centre with the UK Met Office. He is Director of the UKRI funded Centre for Doctoral Training in Environmental Intelligence: Data Science and AI for Sustainable Futures and is co-lead of the recently established theme in Environment Sustainability at the Alan Turing Institute, where he is a Turing Fellow.

About Energy Futures Lab

Energy Futures Lab is one of seven Global Institutes at Imperial College London. The institute was established to address global energy challenges by identifying and leading new opportunities to serve industry, government and society at large through high quality research, evidence and advocacy for positive change. The institute aims to promote energy innovation and advance systemic solutions for a sustainable energy future by bringing together the science, engineering and policy expertise at Imperial and fostering collaboration with a wide variety of external partners. The Energy Futures Lab daytime seminars are delivered by staff and students from across the College and further afield.