Its hard to believe, but it's the final Hydrocarbon Allocation Forum of 2014!

Its been an action-packed year and we've brought you some great speakers and topics over the last 12 months. We're confident we're not going to let you down with this forum either!

Join us at 12pm on the 10th of December at the Hilton Aberdeen Treetops for a networking lunch followed by an insightful presentation from our keynote speaker, Phil Stockton of Accord Energy Solutions, about process simulation models in hydrocarbon allocation systems and uncertainty allocation (full synopsis below).

This will be followed by a short presentation from EnergySys’ resident expert, Stuart Brown, exploring a day in the life of a Hydrocarbon Accountant. Stuart has over 10 years experience with Hydrocarbon Accounting, as both a user and on the vendor side, and will treat attendees to tips, anecdotes and advice he has gathered throughout his career.

Alongside these top-notch presentations, there will be ample time for networking and our complimentary buffet lunch. As it's close to Christmas, we'd like to thank you all for your support over the year with a drinks reception from 2pm until 3pm.

Agenda:

Please let Kirsty Armitage (kirsty.armitage@energysys.com) know if you have any dietary requirements

Key Takeaways

• Venue: Hilton Aberdeen Treetops

• Date: 10th December

• Time: 12pm-3pm

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If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

SYNOPSIS: Process Simulation Models and Uncertainty Allocation

Phil Stockton, Accord Energy Solutions

The main purpose of process simulation models within hydrocarbon allocation systems is to provide information regarding how hydrocarbons behave in a process plant.

Allocation algorithms often include factors generated by these models. In calculating the uncertainty in the quantities allocated to each party in an allocation system, the uncertainty in the factors supplied from a simulation has to be accounted for. The uncertainty in the measured quantities is often known with a good degree of confidence but for example a shrinkage factor uncertainty is generally unknown and usually arbitrarily assumed to have a value of say ±10%.

This presentation demonstrates how to calculate process factor uncertainties more rigorously using Monte Carlo simulation. It also illustrates that the uncertainties of such factors can vary significantly and that they are highly dependent on the parameter in question, the process itself, operating conditions, etc. The paper considers the sources of uncertainty within the models and attempts to demystify their black box reputation.

The presentation concludes by illustrating the variability in some recycle streams and the problems associated with usefulness of measurements of these types of streams in allocation systems.