Understanding parole success following release from prison

About the talk.

At a time of unprecedented pressure on the prison system in England and Wales, parole provides an important mechanism by which some prisoners may be released under supervision and subject to licence conditions. The Parole Board conducts independent risk assessments to determine whether eligible prisoners can be safely released.

Funded by the Dawes Trust and undertaken in partnership with the Prison Reform Trust, this study describes the parole cohort and the extent and nature of post-release rates of recall, custodial reconviction, and serious further offending by parolees and other prisoners in England and Wales between 2011 and 2021. Drawing on over one million release records, these outcomes were assessed at one, two, three, five, and ten-year follow-up periods. It also identifies risk and protective factors associated with these outcomes.

The insights from the research generate public benefits by informing strategies for the effective post-release supervision of prisoners and parolees.

The research involved secondary analysis of de-identified, individual-level records from the Ministry of Justice Data First prisoner custodial journey dataset.

Meet the presenter.

Dr Tim McSweeney (Dawes Chair of Public Protection)

Tim is Professor of Public Protection at Anglia Ruskin University and leads the International Policing and Public Protection Research Institute's data-driven programme of research on public protection issues, funded by the Dawes Trust. He has over 25 years’ experience of undertaking research, evaluation and consultancy examining the processes and impacts of different criminal justice interventions in the UK, Europe, and Australia. In addition to teaching and research posts in academia, Tim has worked in senior research roles with the Home Office (Counter-Extremism Unit) and Ministry of Justice (HM Inspectorate of Prisons).

Learn more about the series

Each year, the ONS organises a collection of online research events called the Research Excellence Series. The series showcases exceptional research projects that use a diverse wealth of invaluable research data. These data are used by researchers to produce new insights, inform change and make a difference in people’s lives.

Research Excellence Series 2025 will delve into the story of a unique research project. From inception to methodology, dissemination and impact. These sessions will be hosted by an eclectic range of speakers from across the research community.

This year’s series will include the winners from the ONS Research Excellence Awards 2024.

The events will take place through Microsoft Teams. They will also be recorded and available to watch later.

Getting in touch

For more information about this event, please visit the ONS SRS website, or email srs.engagement.team@ons.gov.uk.

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