The abstract: Forecast value added is a phrase now very much part of the organizational understanding needed to improve forecasting practice and to select between alternative forecasting methods. One of its more important applications is to understand the improved accuracy achieved by the common practice in demand planning of adjusting a statistical forecasting method based on information gathered through the sales and operations planning process. Various past studies have analysed the results of this adjustment process. This presentation considers a range of data sources to provide insight into the circumstance where gains have been achieved. We identify the key questions facing any organization where FVA of expert judgmental adjustment is part of the process. But be warned, the conclusions will not be unequivocal; FVA is a complex area and there remains a lot to be learnt and much to be done if organizations are going to develop effective demand planning processes.

The introduction to this talk will be given by Mike Gilliland from SAS.

Robert Fildes, Director, Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting, Lancaster University Management School

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