Macro-financial transition risks along mitigation pathways: evidence from a hybrid agent-based integrated assessment model

Francesco Lamperti, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies (Pisa)

Although the case for a swift climate transition is clear, its macro-financial viability remains uncertain. To shed light on the macroeconomic and financial response to deep mitigation trajectories controlled by carbon pricing - such as those reviewed in IPCC reports - we integrate a process-based integrated assessment model into a macroeconomic agent-based model. The hybrid framework allows translating energy systems transformations into macro-financial outcomes at business cycle frequency and volatility. The results reveal that rapid transitions induced by fast-growing carbon prices significantly impact unemployment, inflation, and income distribution. Stabilization policies reduce these economic fluctuations, though not completely so in 1.5°C compatible scenarios. Our paper emphasizes the need for coordinating climate and macroeconomic policy during decarbonization. Additionally, it showcases how model integration can lead to a better understanding of the economic implications of low-carbon futures.

About the speaker

Francesco Lamperti is Professor of Economics at the Institute of Economics and L’EMbeDS, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies (Pisa) and Scientist at the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment. His research interests are mainly focused on climate change economics, macroeconomics, agent-based and integrated assessment modelling, and technological change. Francesco has participated in several research projects funded by public and private institutions, and he has published in a wide spectrum of scientific journals (e.g. Nature Climate Change, PNAS, Ecological Economics, the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Environmental Research Letters). Currently, he leads the “FIND” ERC StG project funded by the European Research Council (2024-2028). Francesco holds a Bachelor and a Master of Science in Economics from Bocconi University (Milan) and a Ph.D. in Economics from Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies (Pisa).

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