Predictive Policing

CCPR (CCCU) / CGCP (UCL)

The next in the London Policing Seminar Series for 2023-2024 run jointly by the Canterbury Centre for Policing Research at Canterbury Christ Church University and the Institute for Global City Policing at UCL on Predictive Policing. Held on Zoom and free and open to all. Speakers:Professor Ken Pease, UCLAll behaviour is prediction-based. Life would be impossible if it were not so. Think what conversation would be like if you could not anticipate the gist of what someone is likely to say next. This makes the phrase ‘predictive policing’ tautologous. All policing is predictive, though the predictions may be perfect or random in relation to the predicted future. The more accurate police officer predictions are, the better. (I can’t think of an exception). There are two basic approaches to improving accuracy. The first is by seeking to enhance predictive skills of individual officers. The second is by research-based identification of those variables associated with particular futures. The first approach relies on experience (personal or vicarious, spontaneous or manipulated). The second relies on research evidence. The presentation will argue there is more scope for improvement in accuracy along the first route, and use work by scholars such as Hans Toch with violence prone police officers, training scars, and intolerance of ambiguity as an obstacle to prediction. The presentation will end with suggestions as to how to use Tasking and Coordinating meetings and body worn video records in the cause of enhanced prediction skill. Dr Simon Egbert, Bielefeld University, faculty of SociologyTitle: Predictive Policing in Germany. Current State and Possible Future DevelopmentsPredictive policing in Germany is currently on the decline again after a brief and intensive period of widespread use since 2014. Of a total of seven software programs, only three are currently still in use. All of these tools still in use are proprietary developments by the respective police authorities, which is probably no coincidence. I will present and discuss this hypothesis in my talk and present possible future developments in the field of predictive policing in Germany, which are closely connected to the increasing use of data integration and analysis platform from US-software company Palantir Technologies among German police forces. Harry Camilerri, Cambridge University (and researcher in climate, diplomacy and geopolitics), and Dr Miri Zilka, research associate at Cambridge UniversityThe last decade has seen a wave of technological innovation by police forces. While this development has attracted significant scholarly attention, little is known about the accompanying media coverage, which can play a significant role in public understanding and perception of such technologies. In this article, we examine how the UK press has reported on two specific types of police technology, individual risk assessment, and predictive area mapping, in the 2012–2021 period. We find that (i) press coverage peaked in 2018, before dropping sharply, (ii) press reports have grown significantly more negative, (iii) concerns about bias have become predominant, and (iv) some evidence that the police have become more reticent in their dealings with the press. We hypothesise that this has inadvertently contributed to a reduction in transparency, which risks further erosion of efforts to identify and mitigate potential harms. In light of these findings, we propose potential paths towards improving transparency.

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Predictive Policing

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Predictive Policing

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